Seasonal Climate Outlook

Science Centres: Climate

Air temperature, rainfall, soil moisture and river flow predictions for the coming season. See these Forecasting Climate and More on Probabilities links for background information on climate outlooks and their interpretation. See this Baseline Tables link for historical rainfall and temperature data ranges for several locations within each climate outlook region.

Issues

Seasonal Climate Outlook: May - July 2012
La Niña over, and a mild start to winter for New Zealand 

Seasonal Climate Outlook: April - June 2012
La Niña ending, but easterly circulation regime to persist

Seasonal Climate Outlook: March - May 2012

LA NINA GONE BY EASTER; SOMEWHAT STORMY TASMAN SEA

Seasonal Climate Outlook: February - April 2012

LA NINA SET TO FADE WITH A NEAR-NORMAL LEAD-IN TO AUTUMN

Seasonal Climate Outlook: January - March 2012

LA NINA THROUGH LATE SUMMER: CONTINUING WET IN NORTH AND DRY IN SOUTH

Seasonal Climate Outlook: December 2011 - February 2012

MILD LA NINA SUMMER LIKELY

Seasonal Climate Outlook: November 2011 - January 2012

LA NINA BACK BUT A TYPICAL SUMMER LIKELY

Seasonal Climate Outlook: October - December 2011

DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY AS LA NINA RETURNS

Seasonal Climate Outlook: September - November 2011

COOL START, MILD AND DRY LATER 

Seasonal Climate Outlook: August - October 2011

Mild conditions with near average rainfall likely in most places

Seasonal Climate Outlook: July - September 2011

Mild conditions likely to continue through late winter 

Seasonal Climate Outlook: June - August 2011

La Niña gone, but a mild winter still likely

Seasonal Climate Outlook: May - July 2011

A mild early winter shaping up for many regions; La Niña bowing out

Seasonal Climate Outlook: April - June 2011

Mild conditions continuing into late autumn as La Niña weakens

Seasonal Climate Outlook: March - May 2011

A mild autumn with La Niña easing

Seasonal Climate Outlook: February - April 2011

Warmer than normal conditions likely to continue into autumn

Seasonal Climate Outlook: January - March 2011

A warm end to summer likely

Seasonal Climate Outlook: December 2010 - February 2011

A typical La Niña summer likely

Seasonal Climate Outlook: November 2010 - January 2011

La Niña locked in – a warm early summer likely

Seasonal Climate Outlook: October - December 2010

La Niña intensifies; warm late spring period very likely

Seasonal Climate Outlook: September - November 2010

A mild La Niña spring on the way

Seasonal Climate Outlook: August - October 2010

La Niña conditions for the rest of 2010

Seasonal Climate Outlook: July - September 2010

La Niña on the way - mild conditions likely

Seasonal Climate Outlook: June - August 2010

Mild conditions likely to continue through winter

Seasonal Climate Outlook: May - July 2010

A mild start to winter, and the end of the El Niño

Seasonal Climate Outlook: April - June 2010

A warm end to Autumn

Seasonal Climate Outlook: March - May 2010

El Niño to exit by the end of Autumn

Seasonal Climate Outlook: February - April 2010

A cool end to summer, and continuing drier than normal in the north

Seasonal Climate Outlook: January - March 2010

Late summer – more of the same

Seasonal Climate Outlook: December 2009 – February 2010

El Niño strengthens, with conditions likely to be cooler in south and drier in northeast

Seasonal Climate Outlook November - January 2010

Moderate El Niño conditions, but muted influence on New Zealand in the coming season

Seasonal Climate Outlook October - December 2009

Weak El Niño not likely to greatly influence New Zealand rainfall in the coming season.

Seasonal Climate Outlook September - November 2009

A windy spring ahead with drier than normal conditions in many regions.

Seasonal Climate Outlook: August - October 2009

The climate over the next three month period is expected to be typical of early spring right across New Zealand, according to the latest outlook from NIWA’s National Climate Centre.

Seasonal Climate Outlook July - September 2009

A wet end to winter, with near average temperatures in most regions.

Seasonal Climate Outlook: May - July 2009

La Niña over, with a near-normal winter on the way.